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2013.11.12 PC Meeting PacketCRYSTAL PLANNING COMMISSION AGENDA **Tuesday, November 12, 2013 at 7:00 p.m. Council Chambers, Crystal City Hall Commissioners, please call 763.531.1142 or email iohn.sutter a().crYstalmn. pov if unable to attend * Items for which supporting materials are included in the meeting packet ** The November meeting has been moved from Monday to Tuesday because November 11 is a legal holiday (Veterans Day) A. CALL TO ORDER The regular meeting of the Crystal Planning Commission convened at 7:00 p.m. with the ❑ Commissioner (Ward 1) ❑ Commissioner (Ward 2) ❑ Commissioner (Ward 4) Sears [Vice Chair] Kolb Richter ❑ Commissioner (Ward 1) ❑ Commissioner (Ward 3) ❑ Commissioner (Ward 4) Heigel VonRueden [Chair] Johnson ❑ Commissioner (Ward 2) ❑ Commissioner (Ward 3) ❑ Commissioner (At -Large) Erickson Buck [Secretary] Strand B. APPROVAL OF MINUTES * Moved by and seconded by to approve the minutes of the October 14, 2013 regular meeting with the following exceptions: Motion carried. C. PUBLIC HEARINGS 1. Consider Application 2013-13 for a Conditional Use Permit to allow an 8 foot fence at 7200 56th Avenue North (MD Liquors)* Staff presented the following: GAPLANNING\Planning Commission\2013\1 1. 12 (Tuesday)\agenda detailed.doc The following were heard: Planning Commission discussion: Moved by and seconded by to (recommend approval) (recommend denial) (continue consideration) of Application 2013-13 for a Conditional Use Permit to allow an 8 foot fence at 7200 56t Avenue North (MD Liquors). Motion carried. 2. Consider Application 2013-14 to amend City Code Section 405 to allow multicolor electronic signs * Staff presented the following: The following were heard: Planning Commission discussion: GAPLANNING\Planning Commission\2013\1 1.12 (Tuesday)\agenda detailed -doe 1 use.✓ vi✓ Moved by and seconded by to (recommend approval) (recommend denial) (continue consideration) of Application 2013-14 to amend City Code Section 405 to allow multicolor electronic signs. Motion carried. IF THE APPLICANT'S REQUEST IS DENIED, BUT OTHER CHANGES ARE DESIRED BY THE COMMISSION, THEN: Moved by and seconded by to recommend approval of the following changes to City Code Section 405 pertaining to electronic signs. Motion carried. D. OLD BUSINESS 1. Update on Metropolitan Council's preliminary 2040 forecasts * E. GENERAL INFORMATION 1. Staff preview of likely agenda items for Monday, December 9 meeting F. OPEN FORUM G. ADJOURNMENT Moved by and seconded by to adjourn. Motion carried. The meeting adjourned at p.m. G:TLANNINGTIanning Commission\2013\1 1. 12 (Tuesday)\agenda detailed.doc Unapproved Minutes of the October 14, 2013 Planning commission Meeting Pagel of 4 CRYSTAL PLANNING COMMISSION MINUTES Monday, October 14, 2013 at 7:00 p.m. Council Chambers, Crystal City Hall A. CALL TO ORDER The regular meeting of the Crystal Planning Commission convened at 7:00 p.m. with the followina members present: X Commissioner (Ward 1) X Commissioner (Ward 2) X Commissioner (Ward 4) Sears [Vice Chair] Kolb Richter X Commissioner (Ward 1) X Commissioner (Ward 3) X Commissioner (Ward 4) Heigel VonRueden [Chair] Johnson X Commissioner (Ward 2) X Commissioner (Ward 3) X Commissioner (At - Erickson Buck [Secretary] Large) Strand Also attending were staff members John Sutter and Gail Van Krevelen and Councilmember Julie Deshler. B. APPROVAL OF MINUTES Moved by Commissioner Sears and seconded by Commissioner Heigel to approve the minutes of the September 9, 2013 regular meeting with no exceptions. Motion carried. C. PUBLIC HEARINGS Consider Application 2013-12 to rezone 5502 West Broadway (Crystal Gallery Mall) to C-2 Planned Development including de-malling the existing building, adding a second, smaller building and revising the parking lot layout. Staff member, John Sutter, presented the staff report. He mentioned that there was one change, the city had requested enlargement of the blocking island where the main entrance enters the parking lot, forcing cars to turn and help prevent cars cutting through the parking lot. Commissioner Kolb stated that he was very excited about the project but questioned whether changes would be made to the main entrance at West Broadway. Mr. Sutter stated that there were no changes planned for the access point, however the south parking lot would be connected to the main parking lot and this would provide an alternate access point from West Broadway. There have been discussions about whether a signal would be warranted at that intersection, but it's a county road so would have to meet their requirements and the city GAPLANNING\Planning Commission\2013\10.14\unapproved minutes.doc Unapproved Minutes of the October 14, 2013 Ylannmg Commission Meeting Page 2 of 4 doesn't see a significant change in traffic occurring because of the improvements. Commissioner Sears mentioned that the entrance from the northbound lane has a hard hook in but a gentle exit, cars slide when entering, and there are few spots for a deceleration lane. Commissioner Kolb also commented that cars enter in the wrong lane, and wondered if a sign could be installed. Mr. Sutter said that if it was a new center, they would design it differently and that the current setup does leave something to be desired. He also said he will discuss it with the property owner and the Engineering Department. Commissioner Erickson questioned where the remaining interior corridors would lead to if the center is de-malling. Commissioner VonRueden stated that in the past, the entrance off of Sherburne Avenue was used often. The following were heard: Greg Hayes, from Lupient Automotive Group, a representative of the property owner, said that the remaining corridor to Sherburne would allow the tenants in the back spaces access to the parking lot. He mentioned that there was a new tenant coming to the mall called Home Choice. He also indicated thatbothStarbucks and Caribou were interested in leasing a location in the new secondary building being proposed. Planning Commission discussion: Commissioner Kolb asked whether there was a timeline set for the improvements to be completed on the property. Mr. Hayes stated that they plan to de -mall in phases. There are many tenants to deal with and the cost is substantial. They would like to have the leasing done and take out the walkway when they do the build -out for new tenants. He said the parking lot is scheduled to be done this coming summer and they would like to break ground on the pad building after the first of the year with occupancy in mid- to late -summer. Mr. Sutter said that the way staff is viewing it as a master plan. The city would approve building permits and the owner doesn't need to have to come back. Commissioner Kolb questioned whether there is an end date. Mr. Sutter said that as a Planned Unit Development, it would last for 2-3 years and the property owner can ask the City Council for an extension. Moved by Commissioner Heigel and seconded by Commissioner Sears to recommend approval of Application 2013-12 to rezone 5502 West Broadway (Crystal Gallery Mall) to C-2 Planned Development including de-malling the GAPLANNING\Planning Commission\2013\10.14\unapproved minutes.doc unapprovea minutes or ine uctooer 14, GU i.) rianning l U[[IIII15S1U11 1V1GGL111g Page 3 of 4 existing building, adding a second, smaller building and revising the parking lot layout. Motion carried. D. NEW BUSINESS 1. Discuss Metropolitan Council's preliminary 2040 forecasts and possible city response Mr. Sutter stated that every 10 years the Met Council releases a new forecast. The 2040 projection is a radical departure from previous forecasts. Mr. Sutter feels they may be right on broad trends, but they aren't happening at the projected rate. Even if they are correct on the demand side, the model appears to be broken on the supply side in that it doesn't seem to account for the difficulty of finding development sites in already -developed communities like Crystal. They are projecting 3200 housing units and Mr. Sutter indicated that he has no idea where that amount of development could occur. There is very little available land in Crystal, if it's not already developed there's a reason. He also indicated that he looked at development between 2000 — 2007 and there was a net gain of 179 residential units and that was a strong period of development. Land supply is getting harder to find and he thinks the Met Council's computer model is not differentiating between undeveloped and developed land. Commissioner Heigel asked if there is anything on record of available acreage of open land in Crystal. Mr. Sutter said yes, but that the land is probably not built on for a reason. Assuming infill development on the last little bits of undeveloped property, he calculated 270 additional housing units could be built by 2030 but it all depends on the market. Commissioner VonRueden asked if there would be any penalty and if that meant the forecast is wrong. Mr. Sutter said that these were ridiculously large increases, and they are not considering closing the airport in calculations. Commissioner Richter asked if the October 30th workshop was open to the public. He said he was aghast at population estimates and if the model was broken, why wasn't it fixed before the information went out to the cities. He also stated that if their projection is not challenged, this would be the pretext of what they push for. Commissioner Kolb questioned why we care what they say and if there would be a penalty. Mr. Sutter stated that they can withhold grant money and that according to state statute they have the right to review the comprehensive plan. Mr. Sutter said that he doesn't believe there is a test case where a developed community refused to follow Metropolitan Council's forecasts, but in the end the city could put its Comprehensive GAPLANNING\Planning Commission\2013\10.14\unapproved minutes.doc unapprovea Minutes oT the uctooer 14, /_U I-) riammng t-ornmission miming Page 4 of 4 Plan into effect despite Metropolitan Council's objection and see if they sue the city. Mr. Sutter said the workshops are open to Planning Commission or Council members in addition to staff. Commissioner Kolb mentioned that Golden Valley has an even higher percentage increase in the 2040 forecast. Commissioner Richter asked if the 55% increase in employment was for public or private jobs. Mr. Sutter indicated it would be both public and private, but he didn't know the reason for the large increase and would ask at the October 30 workshop. Commissioner Strand said that businesses she deals with are looking at neighboring states and moving out because of the continuing taxation. E. GENERAL INFORMATION 1. City Council actions on previous Planning Commission items: — Adopted an ordinance rezoning 5401 51stAvenue North to R-3 Planned Development to allow a four story building (The Cavanagh) 2. Quarterly Development Status Report Commissioner VonRueden asked if the city was seeking new house proposals. Mr. Sutter stated that we just closed on the tenth 2013 lot sale in early October and there would be about 13-14 lots remaining going into 2014. 3. Staff preview of likely agenda items for Tuesday, November 12 meeting. Mr. Sutter said there wasn't anything currently on the agenda. He indicated that a developer is looking at the Gaulke property at 39th and Douglas Dr. for possible development of single-family homes and there may be a couple of other applications regarding small requests. Commission Sears commented that anything that indicates it is based on computer modeling should be flagged. He said that the Metropolitan Council's wastewater treatment plants are overbuilt and way short of being filled up. F. OPEN FORUM None were heard. G. ADJOURNMENT Moved by Commissioner Buck and seconded by Commissioner Erickson to adjourn. Motion carried. The meeting adjourned at 8:00 p.m. GAPLANNING\Planning Commission\2013\10.14\unapproved minutes.doc M E M O R A N D U M DATE: November 7, 2013 TO: Planning Commission (November 12, 2013 meeting) V FROM: John Sutter, City Planner/Assistant Community Development Director C051 SUBJECT: Public Hearing: Application 2013-13 for a Conditional Use Permit to allow an 8 foot fence at 7200 56th Avenue North (MD Liquors) A. BACKGROUND The subject property is a 3,444 sq. ft. retail building on a 21,992 sq. ft. ('/z acre) site. The owner is remodeling the building for a liquor store and proposes to build an 8 foot tall wood screening fence between his property and the adjacent residential properties to the north and west. The property is guided and zoned Neighborhood Commercial (C-1). Fence height is limited to 6 feet except as part of necessary screening between different land uses under a conditional use permit (CUP) approved by the City Council. The owner also proposes to install LED security lights on the rear and sides of the building, but these do not require Planning Commission or City Council approval and are in compliance with 515.13 Subd. 3 regarding lighting. Notice of the public hearing was published in the Sun Post on October 31, 2013 and mailed to all Crystal property owners within 350 feet of the subject property. A copy of the notice was sent to the City of New Hope for them to similarly notify their property owners within 350 feet. On November 12, 2013 the Planning Commission will hold the public hearing and consider making a recommendation for the City Council to consider at its November 19, 2013 meeting. The following Exhibits are attached: A. Owner's narrative B. 2012 aerial photo (wide view) C. Aerial photo with mark-up showing fence location D. Photo of typical fence panel E. LED lighting information B. STAFF COMMENTS The maximum fence height in city code is 6 feet above grade. However, Subsection 515.13 Subd. 7a)2) allows the City Council to approve fences up to 8 feet above grade as a conditional use for screening and buffering between incompatible land uses. 7200 56TH (MD LIQUORS) - CUP - 8 FOOT FENCE PAGE 1 OF 2 Staff's recommended findings and conditions are in bold type below: The proposed wood fence, with a height not to exceed 8 feet measured from grade to the highest point of the fence, provides screening and buffering between incompatible land uses, provided that the requirements of 515.05 Subd. 3a) are satisfactorily met as described below: 515.05 Subd. 3a): In addition to specific standards or criteria included in the applicable district regulations, the following criteria shall be applied in determining whether to approve a conditional use permit request: ■ The consistency of the proposed use with the Comprehensive Plan. The proposed fence is consistent with the Comprehensive Plan because it provides screening between areas guided Neighborhood Commercial and Low Density Residential. ■ The characteristics of the subject property as they relate to the proposed use. The proposed fence would be appropriately located along the western and northern edges of the subject property, approximately one foot from the adjacent lot lines. ■ The impact of the proposed use on the surrounding area. The proposed fence would not negatively impact the surrounding area provided that the following conditions are met: - The side of the fence with no structural elements visible, proposed by the applicant to face inward towards the subject property, shall instead face outward towards the adjacent residential properties. - To be consistent with the minimum setbacks required of adjacent residential buildings, the fence along the west lot line shall not be located within 30 feet of the lot line along 56th Avenue North (Bass Lake Road), and the fence along the north lot line shall not be located within 30 feet of the lot line along Maryland Avenue. - The fence shall be maintained in good repair, and promptly repaired after any damage or deterioration, in accordance with any code compliance orders issued by the city. C. RECOMMENDED ACTION Approve Application 2013-13 subject to the findings of fact and conditions of approval in bold type in Section B of this report. Planning Commission action is requested. The City Council would consider the Planning Commission's recommendation at its meeting on November 19, 2013. 7200 56TH (MD LIQUORS) - CUP - 8 FOOT FENCE PAGE 2OF2 Apollo Systems, Inc 10/17/2013 To whom it may concern, 3957 Wisconsin Ave N New Hope, MN 55427 612-636-7o67 gettingerm@gmail.com I am requesting a conditional use permit for an eight foot fence around the west, and north side of my building located at 7200 56th ave N. Currently there is an existing six foot fence on the west, and north side of the building. I am adding perimeter lighting around the building and would like to give my neighbors shielding from the light, and more privacy in their back yards. Warm regards, Apollo Systems, Inc I ID: $170,000 Owner Price: Apollo System Inc Name: Parcel 7200 56Th Ave N Address: Crystal, MN 55428 Property representation or warranty expressed or Commercial -Preferred Type: implied, including fitness of any particular Home- purpose, merchantability, or the accuracy and Non -Homestead stead: completeness of the information shown. Parcel 0.5 acres Area: 21,992 sq ft Print Date: 10/18/2013 Market $313,000 Total: Tax $14,031.70 Total: (Payable: 2013) Sale $170,000 Price: This map is a compilation of data from various Sale 04/2013 sources and is furnished "AS IS" with no Date: representation or warranty expressed or implied, including fitness of any particular purpose, merchantability, or the accuracy and Sale Other — See Certificate completeness of the information shown. Code: Of Real Estate Value COPYRIGHT © HENNEPIN COUNTY 2013 r Think Green! to m X W I i Y l� J b j�yld � t M M 2 v } Q t LM Ln N h a.+ N v .y 0 N CN G d V Q� 0 0 Q� v t N 10 10 N V1 Q) ho m G ai m ro v t H v c c m C. 0 0 3 v a Y A v N N v ho 0 �yy N�- T c O co DESCRIPTION The ESW-WPLED-I's low profile architectural design combined with a high performance light source makes it an attractive and smart choice. Constructed of die-cast aluminum, the ESW-WPLED-1 uses a UV resistant powder coated finish to protect against the elements and is UL listed for wet locations. The ESW-WPLED-1 incorporates contractor friendly features that allow for ease of installation including a hinged design for easy access and the EZ -LITE quick mounting system which fits standard junction boxes. Available in 10, 20 or 30 watts, the ESW-WPLED-1 provides a wide spectrum of application options for schools, office complexes, light commercial, apartments and recreational facilities. SPECIFICATIONS Construction: Precision molded die-cast aluminum housing with removable hinged access door offers durable performance and clean aesthetics. Heat fins on top of fixture incorporate a 5% pitch to allow for water and debris run off. Fixture is completely sealed and gasketed. Stainless steel Torx head captive fasteners provide tamper resistant securement. ESW-WPLED-1 also incorporates a UV resistant, long lasting bronze powder coated finish. Optics: ESW-WPLED-1 delivers exceptional light quality, efficiency and light distribution. The patent -pending optical system is available in 10, 20 or 30 watt configurations providing 4700K color and a CRI of 85. The 20 and 30 watt units utilize precision optic lenses to provide additional forward throw and wide throw elements. Each LED is strategically positioned to optimize the light distribution and minimize glare and light pollution. Electrical: The ESW-WPLED-1 series operates from 120-277V 50/6OHz with an auto -ranging voltage controlled circuit and simple two (2) wire input. The ESW-WPLED-1 is suitable for operation in -30°C to 40°C ambient conditions. Thermal Management: LED drivers are securely mounted directly to the die-cast aluminum housing optimizing thermal management. LEDLITElogic heat sinking technology moves heat away from the LEDs maximizing system performance and delivering 50,000+ hour life with >70% lumen maintenance. Environmentally Friendly Design: ESW-WPLED-1 luminaires consume very little energy, provides long life in comparison to traditional lamp technologies, and emits extremely low UV and minimal heat. The compact design allows for the use of fewer materials and is recyclable, resulting in less overall waste. Installation: The ESW-WPLED-1 series features our EZ -LITE gasketed steel mounting plate which easily attaches to a 3" or 4" J -box. Fixture is secured using two (2) corrosion resistant stainless steel alien head set screws recessed into the bottom of the mounting canopy. The ESW-WPLED-1 can also be pole mounted using a pole mount bracket assembly that can mount up to (4) fixtures on standard 4" square or round poles. Photocontrol (Option: PC): Optional photocontrol provides dusk -till -dawn security. Input voltage must be specified to match fixture input voltage. Available on 10 watt and 20 watt units only. IESNA LM -79 and LM -80: The ESW-WPLED-1 is evaluated in accordance with the parameters outlined and reported by LM -79 and LM -80 documents. Listing: UL Listed for wet locations. Warranty: Any component that fails due to manufacturer's defect is guaranteed for 5 years. The warranty does not cover physical damage, abuse or acts of God. Manufacturer reserves the right to charge for such repairs if deemed necessary. ESW-WPLED-i ARCHITECTURAL LED WALL PACK LEDLITE/8918 YEAR &S 111111111CM11111 LISTED SPECIFICATIONS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITHOUT NOTICE W m X N Fixture Performance Part Number Lumens Lumens Per Nominal LED Wan (LPW) Wattage ......... ._.............._.......... . ESW-WPLED-1-10 729 73 10 ESW-WPLED-1-20^ 1310 66 20 ........ , ...................... .... ESW-WPLED-1-30 1871 62 30 NOTE: Lumen maintenance and fife (part of LM -80 data) are per published information from primary LED suppliers and is based on design operation at their specified thermal management and electrical design parameters. Dimensions _[ ® 2.0"—f I 11 91 U 11 m 13.9" F— 6.25"--1 1 I— 6.25" —I Approximate Weight: 8 lbs. Sample Photometrics ESW-WPLED-1-10 Mounted at 10' (Type II Very Short Cutoff) Horizontal Spacing Criteria: 1.36 40' 30' 20, .1fr .5fc 10 L_ 01 0' 10' 20' 30' 40' ESW-WPLED-1-20 Mounted at 10' (Type II Short Semi -Cutoff) Horizontal Spacing Criteria: 2.16 40' 30' 20' 10' 0' 0' 10' 20' 30' 40' ESW-WPLED-1-30 Mounted at 10' (Type III Short Cutoff) Horizontal Spacing Criteria: 2.04 Maryland Ave n aull aauaj M E M O R A N D U M DATE: November 7, 2013 TO: Planning Commission (November 12, 2013 meeting) FROM: John Sutter, City Planner/Assistant Community Development Director SUBJECT: Public Hearing: Application 2013-14 to amend City Code Section 405 to allow multicolor electronic signs Crystal currently limits electronic signs to a single color. The owner of 7200 56th Avenue North (Apollo Systems, Inc. d/b/a MD Liquors) has applied for a text amendment to allow multi -color signs. While the effect of any code change would be city-wide, the stated reason for this application is to allow a multi -color sign at MD Liquors. Notice of the public hearing was published in the Sun Post on October 31, 2013. On November 12, 2013 the Planning Commission will hold the public hearing and consider making a recommendation for the City Council to consider at its November 19, 2013 meeting. The following Exhibits are attached: A. Owner's narrative B. Crystal handout regarding electronic signs C. Table comparing Crystal with adjacent cities D. Table showing changes recommended by staff All of the five adjacent cities allow multi -color electronic signs, but many of them are more restrictive of electronic signs in other ways: • Crystal's minimum image duration of 3 seconds is near the bottom of the range (from 2 seconds in Brooklyn Center to 1 day in Golden Valley). Staff recommends matching Brooklyn Park's two minute standard (but for multicolor signs only). • Crystal does not require additional setbacks beyond what is generally required for freestanding signs; New Hope and (sometimes) Brooklyn Center do. Staff does not recommend any special setback requirements for electronic signs. • Crystal does not limit brightness; New Hope, Robbinsdale and Brooklyn Center do. Staff recommends applying the same standard we use for parking lot lighting to electronic signs, whether single -color or multi -color. TEXT AMENDMENT - MULTI -COLOR ELECTRONIC SIGNS PAGE 1 OF 2 Staff recommendation: Approve Application 2013-14 to amend City Code Section 405 to allow multi -color electronic signs, with the following additional changes recommended by staff: Minimum image duration of 2 minutes for multi -color electronic signs; and Brightness limitations of 0.4 foot candles at any residential lot line and 1.0 foot candles at any street centerline for all electronic signs. Planning Commission action is requested. The City Council would consider the Planning Commission's recommendation at its meeting on November 19, 2013. TEXT AMENDMENT - MULTI -COLOR ELECTRONIC SIGNS PAGE 2 OF 2 Apollo Systems, Inc 10/18/2013 To whom it may concern, 3957 Wisconsin Ave n New Hope, MN 55427 612-636-7067 gettingerm@gmail.com We are requesting a zoning text amendment to Crystal City code 405.03 Subd. 9. We think it would greatly benefit the business growth in the city of Crystal, and conforms to cities around. By having a multi -color display sign greatly increases business visibility to potentially new business clients and current ones. We are opening a liquor store at 7200 56th Ave N under MD Liquors. We do not want our windows of the store covered with paper banner ads of products that we are selling. Since safety is our biggest concern for our clients, we think that by having a multi -color sign display we are able to eliminate the paper banner ads that would have covered our store front windows and provide a better shopping experience to our clients. Current zoning text: "Electronically or electrically controlled reader board" means a sign, or section thereof, messages of which may be changed by electronic process or remote control and the only movement of which is the periodic changing of information against a solid, colorless background, having a constant light illumination level using lamps having a single color. (Amended, Ord. No. 2007-18, Sec. 1)" Proposed change to zoning text amendment: "Electronically or electrically controlled reader board" means a sign, or section thereof, messages of which may be changed by electronic process or remote control and the only movement of which is the periodic changing of information against a solid, colorless background, having a constant light illumination level using multi- color lamps. (Amended, Ord. No. 2007-18, Sec. 1) Warm regards, Apollo Systems, Inc Page 02 •O +�+ bQ O cd O ca rd yvj O p '� 'd C 14 rA CIS 4-� N v k Oa a� o ed O 004 � a � ,� o `D U y p O bA g u y �' N Flo 0 U..O W 0 0 O Oy O *O O v F U-rl Qo y., G rd 4P-4 04 O w�° O v .� •M, •5 rd O �+ 04 cl 4w 4mi 4-1 P-4 pm 0� ° .ny Com%�.1 a, is pt 04 9) m Z Z O Q J 0 J a 0 U Z v W J W LL O Z N Q n. 2 V rn rn co ZZ rn m rn rn O O cn u�i u�i vii cn co co f'~ E E E E E E U U U U U U Z m @ @ T m T m T Q J (n O (n 0 (n O U) O fn O (n O zZ LLC) QQ mo~ w CD c c 0 c c 2 0 Z Z Z Z Z Z cn _ m L '^ vJ z _ m m LL1 ZO N -2 00 N a U•= C) C LO c O . - M O C .� X N O m m Ern X •C m C "° y C O C O mJ O Z •�•. �.nsn ° O Z s c Z Z n O Z c O � LLI cn c cn c (n -0 aS c c=� cn m C7 'o ° = O c @ a°i rn aUi m c aoi cnN n� E o M LO N U := M N r > E J cu O ,fd O E N a c O_UW_ o U4= °io ~ m Q a) N .� .y LO N .9 C)f2o d c �:a� N '� O c N c� (n c '� N c N c O W W Q u O Z O co -0 O Z O Z C 7 m-0 O Z O Z N N (D N to O ,N Q) U) Mn L .L.+ _ cn L L ., O O Z O1= Lo j O N j N a l OUU O °c Oc `L t EE O LO c O O N E N OW— N L X'cM:;im c N L Xc 63is .� c� cm r-rz QN Q J m LmU -(D '� O O Z m °)U - 2 'rn o rn o'O cn 2) U Z S: 'in o O Z O Z rn c-0 J Q1LO U >, T J j U) Q W— O O O N d N E 3 O O O ._ E ._ U o r_ `? ._ E E W�OCY WWW Oo E 0 E Oo o 0C Oo cn Q a Z Q Z a Z Z a Qs Z a Z Q � U � O o �J �_ OU Q W Z } >- >- >- } Of ZofW } W Q J -j U CL J W C" < Z Z --� (n Z J Y J y Z w H m O O J 00 U U Z W m m W_ uj Oct cc Cl) cf) C E 0 LLI -i ui LL Cl) I ct m 0) w uj 0 0 ly- U. 0 z ZOO. 0 W. re - 0 Q) m a (3) (D (1) CD co cu 0) cu 0) cu 0) co 0) cu (n (n (1)cinU) U) in (n cp (n cp a) E a) E E a) E a) E a) E —co -E c U) 0 65 0 U) o U) o 65 0 6) 0 co 00 co C) (D c c c 0 (D c 0 Z 0 0 z 0 z 0 z 0 z z z CU M CQ C/) cn Nt (D C: cu UJ CL 42 LO U) 6 a) Cl) co (D p C: 0 O N 0 (Dc C: 0 2 U) z C: :3 z z N '0 '0 C U) cn LU0 C: C: 0 a8 o 0 L 0 0 0 cu '5 (OD C (n C: 's (D cn =3 (D N 0 (n CL a) 6 -a E c) rAU LO N t-- U) r — E cu :5 0 6- 0 7 C) E N a a) (D 4? a) C: a) c -0 (D C (D C: 0 LU uj co Q� 0 z C) =3 co (D -0 0 Z 0 cn C: :3 Z =3 cu �o 0 z z Ln �Ln 0 co U) U) 40 cn (n to 0 LO 0. = 0 > 0 a) > =3 Lo 0 0 2 "o -C 0 0 0 -C .0 X :E P - o -6.2 4) LO o -6 0 LO w M c: a) E& a) 25 X c: -�U- CU ca 0) o g) r_ 0 >� 'Z� cu q) 0 -0 — c (D cis 0 -0 U)0) 0 r_ 0 C: 0 CO Fn o a= ED Z 0 a= M Z S =3 0 Z Z _0 � C: -0 21 0 --- o Cl) co ul ui 0 0 a) E C14 CL (n E 6 =3 D ' E 0 0 C) 0 E E 0 C) 0 L) E E 0 CY z Lu 0 a) 0 a) 0 a) . --:t.- 0 urO a) 0 a) C/) 0- cl� z z z z z z ti LU(D 0 U) as as (8)as ui Z CK ui Lli Lli < W < 0 z z < > < 0 C /) >- z cn z 0 0 0 0� w A Uw Z. Co. Co. M E M O R A N D U M DATE: November 7, 2013 TO: Planning Commission (November 12, 2013 meeting) FROM: John Sutter, City Planner/Assistant Community Development Director Or SUBJECT: Update on Metropolitan Council's preliminary 2040 forecasts At the November 5 work session staff presented the attached staff report for City Council discussion. (The exhibits have not been included because the Planning Commission already saw them in the October 14 meeting packet.) After discussion, it was decided that staff will prepare a letter to Metropolitan Council expressing the city's concerns and objections to the forecast. The letter will be signed by the Mayor and City Manager, and it will basically re -state the items in bold type in the attached November 5 staff report. Please let me know if you have any questions. METROPOLITAN COUNCIL'S PRELIMINARY 2040 FORECASTS PAGE 1 OF 1 .. _........_...._.. COUNCIL STAFF REPORT CITYCRYSTAL Metropolitan Council's Preliminary 2040 Forecasts FROM: John Sutter, City Planner/Assistant Community Development Director DEPARTMENT HEAD REVIEW: Patrick Peters, Community Development Director DATE: October 31, 2013 TO: Anne Norris, City Manager (for November 5 work session) SUBJECT: Discuss Metropolitan Council's preliminary 2040 forecasts and possible city response State statute requires metropolitan cities to update their comprehensive plans every ten years. The next update is due in 2018 and we expect to begin working on it in 2017. Metropolitan Council ("MC") reviews local comprehensive plans for consistency with regional systems. As part of this review MC examines the land use chapter and related chapters to determine whether the local plan is consistent with MC's "System Statements" which include population, household and employment forecasts. In practice, the focus is really on the household forecast because households are the more important factor for residential land use and development. MC recently issued its preliminary 2040 regional and local forecasts which were made using computer models for the region's economy, employment and population ("REMI- PI"), household type ("Profamy") and real estate ("Cube Land"). The Planning Commission discussed the 2040 forecast at its October 14 meeting and had many of the same concerns as staff (see pages 3-4 of this memo). Staff then attended an MC workshop at the Ridgedale Library on October 30. Staff from other cities at our table (Robbinsdale, New Hope, Rogers, Medina, Minnetonka, Orono, Edina and Bloomington) were in agreement with our comments. The following Exhibits are attached: A. MC "Metro Stats" bulletin — regional overview of the 2040 forecasts B. MC preliminary 2040 forecasts by county and city (Crystal highlighted) C. Crystal charts showing MC's 2040 forecasts PAGE 1 OF 4 2040 Forecast Summary: 1 4 Crystal in comparison with averaged forecasts for developed suburbs in Hennepin County and region -wide: Crystal: - Population up 6,149 or 27.8% - Households up 3,217 or 35.0% - Employment up 2,171 or 55.3% Hennepin County developed suburbs: - Population up 99,346 or 38.0% - Households up 45,539 or 40.4% - Employment up 41,650 or 22.7% Twin Cities metro area developed suburbs: - Population up 153,456 or 33.7% - Households up 75,598 or 39.1 % - Employment up 72,842 or 24.3% Developed suburbs which are forecast to have the highest and lowest forecast percent change in each of the three categories: Population: Households: Employment: Henn Co - highest: Hopkins +55.8% Henn Co - lowest: Brooklyn Center +13.3% TC metro - highest: Hopkins +55.8% TC metro - lowest: Spring Lake Park + 4.8% Henn Co - highest: Hopkins +47.0% Henn Co - lowest: St Anthony +32.5% TC metro - highest: North St Paul +47.3% TC metro - lowest: Falcon Heights +11.7% Henn Co - highest: Crystal +55.3% Henn Co - lowest: Robbinsdale +10.8% TC metro - highest: Crystal +55.3% TC metro - lowest: Falcon Heights -13.2% PAGE 2 OF 4 Staff comments: The population and household forecasts for Crystal are not unique; they are broadly consistent with MC's forecasts for other similar developed suburbs. But the degree of increase forecast among developed suburbs is unrealistically high, and for developing suburbs, unrealistically low. 2. Households are the major driver of residential development. MC's forecast for households in Crystal is an increase of 3,217 from 2010-2040 — meaning an average of 107 additional housing units every year from 2010-2040. For comparison, during the eight year period ending Dec. 31, 2007 (when development activity was relatively strong), Crystal had a net gain of 179 housing units, averaging 22 per year. In other words, MC's 2040 forecast assumes a pace of development in Crystal five times faster than the boom years of 2000-2007. Other cities' staff expressed a similar opinion that the MC forecasts are not just off by a little bit; they are way beyond the realm of reasonable possibility. 3. Crystal staff put it specifically: • We have seen no net gain in housing units since 2010 and we're already three years into the forecasts' 30 year period. (One-for-one replacement of blighted houses doesn't count.) • The Cavanagh will come online in 2014 with 130 out of the 3,217 additional units forecast by 2040. • That leaves 3,087 more units to be added in 2015-2040, or 119 units per year for the next 26 years. Almost a Cavanagh per year, every year, from 2015- 2040. That is completely unrealistic and unreasonable. 4. MC staff acknowledged that the land supply part of the model does not reflect the practical realities of redeveloping a site that already has an active, functioning use (a "going concern"). MC staff explained that the model compares potential rent to construction costs to determine development feasibility but does not account for the cost of relocating the existing use elsewhere. MC also confirmed that the model does not account for political/community opposition and (most importantly) the willingness of current owners to sell. In other words, the model apparently sees already -developed areas like Crystal the same way it sees cornfields in Rogers and Farmington. 5. The employment forecast for Crystal, with an increase of 55%, stands out from other developed suburbs. The next highest city is Columbia Heights at 41 %, and the average among all of the developed suburbs is only 24%. Crystal and other cities made the point that residential development on already -developed sites typically requires displacement of some existing use which would likely depress employment. MC staff acknowledged the contradiction inherent in forecasting high household and employment growth in developed cities. PAGE 3 OF 4 6. Crystal and several other cities' staff suggested that the problem lies in the way MC turns its regional forecasts into local mandates, and maybe the "forecasts" are really just MC's aspirations and should be treated as such. 7. Another option would be a two-tiered approach separating infill development of vacant sites (reasonably likely, and able to designate on the 2040 planned land use maps) from redevelopment of existing uses (impossible to predict or designate in advance). This is the approach MC reluctantly allowed Crystal to use in our most recent Comp Plan update. As redevelopment of existing uses occurs over time, dependent on willing sellers, financial feasibility and political/community support, the planned land use map would be amended to accommodate specific projects. The Cavanagh is a real-world example of how redevelopment opportunities arise in unpredictable ways — how would you show it on a map 10-20 years in advance? Staff opinion is that it is important to formally state our concerns and objections now, early in the Comprehensive Plan update process, in the hope that MC's computer model will be re -worked and the 2040 forecasts for Crystal revised dramatically downward. And if not, then at least the city would have a good basis for political and (if necessary) legal challenges to MC as we move closer to our next Comp Plan update due in 2018. To that end, staff proposes to formalize our comments in a letter to MC, but we want to check in with the City Council before doing so. Next steps: • Send letter to Metropolitan Council with the 2040 forecast our comments, concerns and objections to MC may agree to revise the 2040 forecast later this year depending on the workshop discussion and city comments. Based on the discussion at the workshop, it was clear that MC staff understand and largely agree with our concerns — so we are hopeful. The forecast will be continually revised and recalibrated by MC throughout 2014 and 2015. After MC's Regional System Statements are released in fall 2015, we can appeal the 2040 forecast prior to beginning work on the 2018 Comprehensive Plan Update. PAGE 4 OF 4