2013.10.14 PC Meeting PacketCRYSTAL PLANNING COMMISSION AGENDA
Mondav,
October 14
2013 at
7:00 .m.
Kolb
Richter
❑ Commissioner (Ward 1)
❑ Commissioner (Ward 3)
Council
Chambers,
Crystal
City Hall
Commissioners, please call 763.531.1142 or email
1ohn.sutte[Ccr�;crystalmnJpOV if unable to attend
* Items for which supporting materials are included in the meeting packet
A. CALL TO ORDER
The regular meeting of the Crystal Planning Commission convened at 7:00 p.m, with the
fnlln%arinri mamhom nracanf-
❑ Commissioner (Ward 1)
❑ Commissioner (Ward 2)
❑ Commissioner (Ward 4)
Sears [Vice Chair]
Kolb
Richter
❑ Commissioner (Ward 1)
❑ Commissioner (Ward 3)
❑ Commissioner (Ward 4)
Heigel
VonRueden [Chair]
Johnson
❑ Commissioner (Ward 2)
❑ Commissioner (Ward 3)
❑ Commissioner (At -Large)
Erickson
Buck [Secretary]
Strand
B, APPROVAL OF MINUTES *
Moved by and seconded by to approve the
minutes of the September 9, 2413 regular meeting with the following exceptions:
Motion carried.
C. PUBLIC HEARINGS
1. Consider Application 2013-12 to rezone 5502 West Broadway (Crystal Gallery
Mall) to C-2 Planned Development including de-malling the existing building,
adding a second, smaller building and revising the parking lot layout *
Staff presented the following:
GAPLANNINGTIanning Commission12013110.141agenda detaiied.doc
The following were heard:
Planning Commission discussion:
Moved by and seconded by to
(recommend approval) (recommend denial) (continue consideration) of
Application 2013-12 to rezone 5502 West Broadway (Crystal Gallery Mall) to C-2
Planned Development including de-malling the existing building, adding a
second, smaller building and revising the parking lot layout.
Motion carried.
D. NEW BUSINESS
1, Discuss Metropolitan Council's preliminary 2044 forecasts and possible city
response
E. GENERAL INFORMATION
1. City Council actions on previous Planning Commission items:
— Adopted an ordinance rezoning 5401 51St Avenue North to R-3 Planned
Development to allow a four story building (The Cavanagh)
2. Quarterly Development Status Report *
3. Staff preview of likely agenda items for Tuesday, November 12 meeting **
** The November meeting has been moved from Monday to Tuesday
because November 11 is a legal holiday (Veterans Day)
F. OPEN FORUM
G. ADJOURNMENT
Moved by and seconded by to adjourn.
The meeting adjourned at
Motion carried.
p.m.
GAPLANNINGTIanning Commission12013114.Magenda detailed.doe
FA
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Page 1 of 3
CRYSTAL PLANNING COMMISSION MINUTES
Monday, September 9 2013 at 7:00 p.m.
Council Chambers, Crystal City Hall
CALL TO ORDER
The regular meeting of the Crystal Planning Commission convened at 7' 0 p. ith the
fnllnwinn mPmhPrS nrPsent:
X Commissioner (Ward 1)
X Commissioner (Ward 2)
X Cotpkff
Sears [Vice Chair]
Kolb
yd7r'W4)
Rich r
X Commissioner (Ward 1 )
X Commissioner (Ward 3)
3 POissi❑ r (Ward 4)
Heigel
VonRueden [Chair]
J%n.
X Commissioner (Ward 2)
X Commissioner (Ward AJX
ammissioner (At -
Erickson
Buck [Secretary]
Strand
Also attending were staff members John Sutter, ttir ters, UR11 Van Kreveien and
Council Liaison Casey Peak.
APPROVAL OF MINUTES
by Commissioner Kolb and
minutes of the July 8, 2013 regu
b missioner Buck to approve the
1.
Motion carried.
The Cavanagh, 5401 515t Avenue North -
)ment including revised site and building plans
n Sutter, presented the staff report.
Co issior Kolb questioned the necessity of having to discuss this if the
overa height of the building was not exceeding what was previously approved.
Mr. S ter stated that even though the height of the building was not increasing
the previously approved 50 feet, the building would now exceed three
stories and so the rezoning to Planned Development designation would be
required.
Commissioner Heigel asked whether the number of handicapped parking spaces
is sufficient. Mr. Sutter said that it is governed by the state accessibility code
which would be confirmed during the building permit plan review. Gary Vogel,
architect for Dominium, said that the number of spaces on the plan exceeds the
minimum required by the code.
UTLANNINGTIanning Coininission12013109.091unapproved minutes.doc
Page 2 of 3
Commissioner Sears asked whether West Metro Fire Rescue District had any
concerns with the new design. Mr. Sutter said that they had reviewed the plan
and provided comments related to hydrant locations and the fire department
connection for the sprinkler system, but they had no major concerns as the
building would be fully sprinklered and there are existing buildings in New Hope
that are taller than four stories.
Chair Richard VonRueden opened the public hearing.
The following were
Carol Bolin, 5009 Quail Ave N, spoke to the Planning Commissi
concerns regarding the increase in stories, architectural styes
materials, and the flat roof being proposed. ((
Cathy Morgan, 5046 Quail Ave N, spoke to the Pla
concerns regarding the increase in stories, archi
lw
exterior building materials, and the flat roof bein
Ron Mehl, a developer at Dominium, said
meeting they received a lot of supportI
at that meeting, they softened the to - f
resident concerns. He also explainO,a
cannot build it as a three-storyig.
Gary Vogel, an architect
packet did not fully illu
more variety than the
of the building to br t
they held the neighborhood
nts. Based on commentary
d building to address
of increased costs, they
explained that the color illustrations in the
t colors of the building and there is a lot
e added that they also added detail on top
,MskeclWhether any commission members had attended
r VonRueden and Commissioner Strand had and they said
,e positive about the development.
9 Sears stated that he appreciated the architect's use of a lighter
fourth floor, this compared favorably to the dark pitched roof of the
and he was impressed by the overall appearance of the building.
missioner Richter asked Mr. Sutter for background information on how the
EDA came to purchase the property from the school district for high density
development. Mr. Sutter summarized the sequence of events leading up to the
plan currently being considered.
Commissioner Kolb stated that, in the interest of continuing a project already
underway, he would be voting in favor, but that his opinion might be different if
the project were at an earlier stage of consideration.
GAPLANNINGTIanning Comn)ission12013109A91unapproved minutes.doc
Al
F
G.
Page 3 of 3
Moved by Commissioner Kolb and seconded by Commissioner Sears to
recommend approval of Application 2013-11 for Rezoning 5401 51St Avenue
North (The Cavanagh) to R-3 Planned Development including revised site and
building plans for a four story building.
By roll call and voting aye, Sears, Heigel, Erickson, Kolb, VonRueden, Buck,
Johnson and Strand. Voting nay, Richter.
NEW BUSINESS
City Council actions on previous Planning Commission items:
- Approved partial vacation of utility easement at 2708 Zan Av ue N Mind
adjacent properties
- Approved the Preliminary & Final Plat of Crystal Eco o is ent
Authority Sixth Addition (3556 & 3564 Welcome nue Orth
- Adopted the revised Section 520 (Site & Buildin iew)
2. Staff preview of likely agenda items for Mond , Oc r 14 meeting
Mr. Sutter said that the city may receiv ite o -mall Crystal Gallery Mall
over a 2-3 year period and put a small tandi ilding in the northwest corner
of the parking lot near the intersegiLQU& Lake Road and West Broadway.
Ar -"q%
OPEN FORUM
ed by Commissioner Buck to adjourn.
Motion carried.
G:IPLANNINGTIanning Commission12013109A91unapproved minutes.doc
M E M O R A N D U M
DATE: October 8, 2013
TO: Planning Commission (October 14, 2013 meeting)
FROM: John Sutter, City Planner/Assistant Community Development Director -
SUBJECT: Public Hearing: Application 2013-12 for Rezoning 5502 West Broadway
(Crystal Gallery Mall) to C-2 Planned Development including de-malling the
existing building, adding a second, smaller building and revising the
parking lot layout
A. BACKGROUND
The subject property contains 7.74 acres and is occupied by the Crystal Gallery Mall
built in 1984. The existing building has a footprint of 82,814 sq. ft. and a gross floor
area of 105,314 sq. ft.
The owner proposes to build a secondary, 6,000 sq. ft. building with a drive-through
near the northwest corner of the site, "de -mall" the existing, primary building with the
reclaimed corridor areas being added to the adjacent tenant spaces, install new exterior
finish on the primary building, and reconfigure the parking lot and landscaping.
The property is guided and zoned General Commercial ("C-2"). Planned Development
("PD") rezoning is required to add the new, secondary building and a conditional use
permit is required for the drive-through. Site plan review is required for the construction
of the new building and the changes to the parking lot and landscaping elsewhere on
the site.
Notice of the public hearing was published in the Sun Post on October 3, 2013 and
mailed to all property owners within 504 feet of the property. On October 14, 2013 the
Planning Commission will hold the public hearing and consider making a
recommendation for the City Council to consider at its November 5, 2013 meeting.
The following Exhibits are attached:
A. Owner's narrative
B. Spring 2012 aerial photo (wide view and zoomed in)
C. 2008 Land title survey
D. Demolition and erosion control plan
E. Grading, drainage and erosion control plan
F. Utility plan
G. Geometric and paving plan
5502 WEST BROADWAY (CRYSTAL GALLERY MALL) - PLANNED DEVELOPMENT REZONING
PAGE 1 OF 7
H. Civil engineering details
I. Storm water pollution prevention plan
J. Illustrative landscape plan (color)
K. Landscape enlargements/plant schedule and notes/details
L. Photometric Plan
M. Floor plan and site plan details for secondary building at NW corner of site
N. Exterior elevations for both buildings (color)
C. Floor plan and exterior elevations for "de-malling" the primary building
B. STAFF COMMENTS
1. Comprehensive Plan and Zoning Classification
The subject property is guided and zoned C-2 General Commercial.
The proposed rezoning would add 'Planned Development' designation to the
current C-2 zoning. Planned Development (City Code 515.57) contains the
following development standards:
a) Each PD must have a minimum area of 2 acres, excluding areas within a public
right-of-way, designated wetland or floodplain overlay district
The development site contains 7.74 acres.
b) The uses proposed within a PD may be used only for a use or uses that are
consistent with the comprehensive plan.
The proposed project would be consistent with C-2 zoning; PD
rezoning is required to add a secondary building to the site.
C) Where the site of a proposed PD is designated for more than 1 land use in the
comprehensive plan, the city may require that the PD include all the land uses so
designated or such combination of the designated uses as the city council deems
appropriate to achieve the purposes of this subsection and the comprehensive plan.
Not applicable.
d) If a particular PD would provide an extraordinary benefit to the community, or if a
PD site has extraordinary characteristics that make development difficult, the city
council may approve a density of up to 15% more than the maximum identified in
the comprehensive plan.
Not applicable.
e) Hardsurface coverages and floor area ratios are limited as follows:
5502 WEST BROADWAY (CRYSTAL GALLERY MALL) - PLANNED DEVELOPMENT REZONING
PAGE 2 OF 7
COMPRFHENSiVE PLAN
DESIGNATION
General Commercial
Crystal Gallery Mall -
Existing Conditions
Crystal Gallery Mall -
Ater Proposed Project
MAXIMUM MAXIMUM
HARDSURFACE COVERAGE FLOOR AREA RATIO
75%
85%
83%*
1.0
0.31
0.33
*The underlying C-2 zoning also has a 75% limit, this means the
existing conditions are lawfully nonconforming ("grandfathered in).
By reducing coverage from 85% to 83%, the proposed project is
permitted because it reduces the nonconformity in accordance with
595.01 5ubd. 8g, even though it fails to meet the 75% limit.
f} The minimum setback for all buildings within a PD from any property line directly
abutting a street, railroad, or residential district is 30 feet, except that in no case shall
the minimum setback be less than the height of the building or more than 100 feet.
The city council may waive the setback requirement if the abutting property, or
property located directly across a public street, is used for recreational, institutional,
commercial, industrial or high density residential purposes. Parking lots and driving
lanes must be set back at least five feet from all exterior lot lines of a PD.
The primary building is set back at least 30 feet from all lot lines
except the north and east lot lines, where the setback varies but is at
least 25 feet. This was approved by the City Council at the time of
the mall's development in 9984. The 25 foot setback can be
permitted under the PD rezoning because the uses across the
streets to the north and east are, respectively, commercial and
recreational.
The secondary building would be set back at least 30 feet from all lot
lines.
The highest part of the primary building would be approximately 39
feet above grade. The highest part of the secondary building would
be approximately 25 feet above grade.
The proposed site plan is in compliance with the 5 foot parking lot
setback.
g) More than 1 building may be placed on 1 platted or recorded lot in a PD.
This is the reason for the requested PD rezoning — so the owner can
add a second building without subdividing the parcel.
5502 WEST BROADWAY (CRYSTAL GALLERY MALL) - PLANNED DEVELOPMENT REZONING
PAGE 3 OF 7
h) A PD which involves a single land use type or housing type will be permitted
provided that it is otherwise consistent with the objectives of this Code and the
comprehensive plan.
The proposed changes to the property are consistent with the
description of General Commercial areas in the Comprehensive Plan
and purpose of the C-2 district in the Zoning Ordinance.
i) A residential PD or residential area of a mixed use PD must provide a minimum of
10% of the gross project area in private recreational uses for project residents. Such
area must be developed and used for active or passive recreational uses suited to the
needs of the residents of the project, including swimming pools, trails, nature areas,
picnic areas, tot lots and saunas. This requirement may be waived if the city council
finds that adequate recreational opportunities are available sufficiently near the PD
to make this requirement duplicative, or if the PD is too small for this requirement
to be feasible.
Not applicable.
j) Property to be included within a PD must be under unified ownership or control or
subject to such legal restrictions or covenants as may be necessary to ensure
compliance with the approved master development pian as well as the long term
maintenance of buildings and site improvements in the development.
The site is a single parcel owned by Crystal Gallery Developers. The
proposed project would not subdivide the existing parcel. Prior to
construction of the secondary building, the owner will be required to
enter into a site improvement agreement which will define the
phasing of construction on the site; and if needed, a storm water
maintenance agreement will also be required at that time.
k) Signs are restricted to those that are permitted in a sign pian approved by the city
and must be regulated by permanent covenants.
Prior to sign permits being issued for the secondary building, the
owner shall submit a sign plan to city staff in accordance with
Section 405.39 of city code. The purpose of the sign plan will be to
pool the allowable wall sign area for the entire property including the
both buildings. This will facilitate the owner's allocation of signage to
tenants as they come and go over time. (There is a similar sign plan
in effect for the Crystal Shopping Center across West Broadway.)
1) The requirements contained in sections of this Code pertaining to general
regulations and performance standards apply to a PD as deemed appropriate by the
city.
5502 WEST BROADWAY (CRYSTAL GALLERY MALL) - PLANNED DEVELOPMENT REZONING
PAGE 4 OF 7
The project will be subject to the same general performance
standards as other property in the city, except for parking lot lighting
which would be allowed to cast more than 9 foot candle on the lot
line at three locations on West Broadway. This standard is waived
due to the benefit of having additional lighting on the public sidewalk
along that lot line.
m) The uniqueness of each PD requires that specifications and standards for streets,
utilities, public facilities and subdivisions may be subject to modification from the
city ordinances ordinarily governing them. The city council may therefore approve
streets, utilities, public facilities and land subdivisions that are not in compliance
with usual specifications or ordinance requirements if it finds that strict adherence to
such standards or requirements is not required to meet the intent of this subsection
or to protect the health, safety or welfare of the residents of the PD, the surrounding
area or the city as a whole.
Except as otherwise noted herein, the proposal is in compliance with
the applicable requirements of city code.
n) A building or other permit may not be issued for any work on property included
within a proposed or approved PD nor may any work occur unless such work is in
compliance with the proposed or approved PD.
Upon submittal of any building permit applications city staff will
review the plans to ensure consistency with the Planned
Development rezoning approved by the City Council.
Suggested finding: The submitted proposal to rezone the property to C-2
Planned Development, for the purpose of building a 6,000 sq. ft secondary
building, "de-malling" the primary building with the claimed area being
added to individual retail spaces, installing new exterior finish on the
primary building and reconfiguring the parking lot and landscaping would
be consistent with the Comprehensive Plan and the PD standards in the
Zoning Ordinance. Approval of this PD rezoning is specifically tied to the
submitted site and building plans, subject to the staff comments and
conditions of approval described in this report
2. Conditional Use Permit - Starbucks drive-through on north and west sides
of the secondary building
This project includes a drive-through for Starbucks Coffee, the westerly tenant in
the new, secondary building. All drive-through establishments require a
Conditional Use Permit ("CUP"). The drive-through would be more than 250 feet
from any property zoned residential, and therefore no hours of operation
limitations are imposed under 515.49 Subd. 4k. This CUP should be specifically
limited to the proposed use because other establishments such as fast food
restaurants may generate larger traffic volumes, have different times for peak
5502 WEST BROADWAY (CRYSTAL GALLERY MALL) - PLANNED DEVELOPMENT REZONING
PAGE 5 OF 7
traffic, and otherwise have different impacts than the use being proposed in this
application.
Suggested finding: The requested CUP for the Starbucks Coffee drive-
through would be located in a manner consistent with the Comprehensive
Plan, well integrated into the new layout of the site including the revised
parking lot, and compatible with surrounding land uses. This CUP is non-
transferable in accordance with 515.05 Subd. 3a, unless the City Manager
determines that the new user will operate in the same manner as the initial
user (Starbucks Coffee). Absent such a determination, any other
establishment would need to secure a new CUP before it may use the
drive-through.
3. Site and Building Plan Review
a. The primary building has a footprint of 82,214 sq. ft. and gross floor area
of 105,314 sq. ft. The secondary building would add 6,000 sq. ft. for an
after -project total gross floor area of 111,314 sq. ft. on the site.
b. The property would be in compliance with the parking requirements. City
Code requires the site to have at least 371 and no more than 445 stalls.
Despite the reduction in hard surfacing, the number of parking stalls on
the site would increase from 394 to 399 due to a more efficient layout.
C. Because the project is a modification of an already -developed site, the
area to be disturbed is less than 5 acres, and the site will generate less
runoff after the project is completed, the City Engineer has determined
that the project does not need to be reviewed by the Shingle Creek
Watershed Management Organization. The city will require a
maintenance agreement whereby developer commits to maintain the
stormwater facilities on the site, including a maintenance plan for the rain
gardens.
d. The City Forester has reviewed the landscape pians and requires the
following modifications:
• Little -leaf Lindens possess notoriously weak branch attachments that
are prone to failure, often leaving disfigured or structurally unsound
trees. Substitute American Linden (Tilia Americana) specifically
`Redmond" which is a hardy spreading pyramidal cultivar or `Boulevard'
for a more upright growth habit.
• `Franksred' Maple is a good maple, but due to concerns about the
number of maples already present in the city, no more than 14%a of the
56 proposed deciduous trees should be maples. Therefore, for 5 of the
10 Fran ksred maples, substitute Maackia (Maackia amurensis) which
is a medium-sized tree (30'-40') or Hackberry (Celtis occidentalis) for a
larger tree.
• The use of Aspen (Populus tremuloides) in the rain gardens is a
problem due to them being a short-lived species that will probably
5502 WEST BROADWAY (CRYSTAL GALLERY MALL) - PLANNED DEVELOPMENT REZONING
PAGE 6 OF 7
need to be replaced during the life of the landscape. Substitute River
Birch (Betula nigra) for the aspens.
When planting shrubs in islands adjacent to parking spaces, spacing
between shrub and parking area must be determined based on the
shrub's mature size.
Turf areas and landscaping beds must be irrigated.
e. West Metro Fire Rescue District requires a hydrant to be located within
100 feet of the fire department connection on the secondary building.
Recommend achieving this by running a 6 inch lead from the existing
hydrant line near Buffalo Wild Wings to the west, toward the secondary
building. For example, the hydrant could be located somewhere near the
trash enclosure and the drive-through.
To guarantee completion of the site improvements, the owner will need to
provide an executed site improvement agreement and cash escrow
deposit. The escrow required for the entire project is $227,000. However,
if the project is broken into smaller phases over 2-3 years as expected,
then separate agreements and a pro -rated share of the required escrow
will be accepted.
g. Noodles & Company proposes to have outdoor service including wine and
beer in a manner similar to Chipotle. This requires a separate Conditional
Use Permit application for outdoor seating concurrent with the liquor
license application. Staff has notified the owner and Noodles that the
location of the outdoor seating area across the sidewalk would not be
permitted under state liquor laws because it would not be contiguous with
the licensed establishment. Noodles will need to come up with an
alternate configuration for the outdoor seating area which will be
considered in detail upon submittal of the outdoor seating CUP and liquor
license applications.
Suggested finding: The proposed site and building plans would be in
compliance with city code, provided that the staff comments and
conditions of approval described in this report are addressed in the
submittal of detailed plans for the respective permit applications.
C. RECOMMENDED ACTION
Approve Application 2013-12 for Crystal Gallery Mall subject to the findings of fact and
staff comments in Section B of this report which shall become conditions of approval.
Planning Commission action is requested. The City Council would consider the
Planning Commission's recommendation at its meeting on November 5, 2013.
5502 WEST BROADWAY (CRYSTAL GALLERY MALL) - PLANNED DEVELOPMENT REZONING
PAGE 7 OF 7
September 20, 2013
City of Cfystal
Crystal Gallery
5510-5590 West Broadway Ave.
Crystal, MIN 55428
Re: Planned Development Application
PROJECT NARRATIVE
uc
100 Portland Ave. South
suite 100
Minneapolis, MN 55401
612 371-6440 T
612 332-0710 F
jagnes@aarchitectsllc,com
Please find attached the required submittal plans and application for a rezoning of the 7.74 acre property from its current
C-2, General Commercial zoning, to a City of Crystal Planned Development.
The Crystal Gallery is proposing three major efforts to revitalize the property, (1 ) the addition of a new 6,000 s.f. pad
building at the corner of Broadway and Base Lake Rd., (2) a redesign and resurfacing of the entire fronVwest parking lot,
and (3) a "de-malling" and exterior remodel of the retail portion of the existing main building.
1. The proposed new pad building, at the most visible location on the property, and anchored by a prominent
upscale drive-thfu coffee use, is a critical piece towards improving the image and vitality of the existing center.
The 6,000 s.f. building will be a one -level, multi -tenant miaillrestaurant use with a drive-thru and outdoor
patios. New colors and materials will be introduced at the new pad building and brought into the existing retail
building to create a harmonious development.
2. The parking lot is proposed to be redesigned to accommodate the new pad building and improve the flow,
safety, parking and esthetic impact of the main building and entire site. Pedestrian connections are planned to
allow direct access to the main building from both the south and north ends of Broadway, to and through the
new pad building, as well as directly from Bass Lake Rd. A reoriented lot simplifies flow in and out of the
property and increases pedestrian safety and convenience by separating moving traffic from pedestrians.
Abundant landscaping will be added throughout the site, including the addition of ecologically responsible rain
gardens and islands, reducing the overall impervious surface by over 5000 sf. Due to a more efficient layout,
the parking count will actually increase by five stalls from 394 existing to 399 proposed, while still within the
current city requirement for the site (372 stalls min. and 445 stalls max.), the overall ratio of building to parking
area will decrease, becoming more consistent with trends to reduce unnecessary seas of parking. Existing
utility connections will be maintained.
3. The retail portion of the existing building is proposed to be "de -malted" with the reclaimed area being added to
the individual tenant spaces, each tenant having its own entrance, and with modified HVAC to cover the new
additional area. The sidewalk at the tenant storefronts will be widened to accommodate the new entries, with
the addition of anew colored concrete border. Existing "mall" entries will be converted to tiered planter areas
with new "Crystal Gallery" branding and harmonious materials and colors tying back to the new pad building.
The existing outdated "solarium" look will be converted to a more functional new metal roof and El FS tenant
1 of 2
September 20, 2013
sign band, again using colors and materials in harmony with the new pad building, New tenant signage will be
standardized with internally lit channel letters complying with the City signage ordinance.
Attached to this submittal package are the following items; we have also included full-sized plans where appropriate:
+
Application form and check for review fees
•
Written Narrative
+
Table of Estimated Project Cost
•
Property Survey prepared by HIPC
•
Site Photometrics Plan
•
Architectural Plans as listed below:
o
SK -1 Pad Building Proposed Floor Plan
o
Sit -2 Pad Building Proposed Exterior Elevations
❑
SO Main Building Proposed Floor Plan & Exterior Elevations
+
Civil Plans as listed below:
o
Hydrology for Crystal Gallery including Existing and Proposed Areas
o
C1.0 Selective Site Demolition Plan
❑
C2.0 Grading, Drainage, and Erosion Control Plan
❑
C3.0 Utility Plan
❑
C4.0 Geometric and Paving Plan
o
C5.0 Civil Details
o
C5.1 Civil Details
o
C6.0 Storm Water Pollution Prevention Plan
•
Landscape Plans as listed below:
❑
L100 Landscape Plan
o
L101 Enlarged Landscape Plans and Plant Schedule
❑
L200 Landscape Notes and Details
Project phasing is anticipated to proceed with the pad building and corresponding surrounding site construction kicking
off the development. Site improvements for the remainder of the site will follow with the de -mailing and building
remodel effort occurring as the tenant vacancies are leased up.
Finally, we believe the proposed plan development will "preserve and enhance the natural and built environment" and
the property will "create a hafmonious felationship of buildings and open spaces with natural site features and buildings
that are in visual relationship".
e k for your support and approval.
r hitects LLC,
Jef rey P. Agnes AIA
JP jpa
c: Greg Hayes — Crystal Gallery Developers
Greg Duginski — Midwest Mechanical and Maintenance
2of2
Parcel
$4GO08OD
Total:'
05-118-21-44<0046
|0:
$200.040.72
Owner
Crystal Gallery Developers
Name:
Parcel
5502 West Broadway
Address:
Crystal, kAN85428
Property
Sale
Commercial -Preferred
Type:
Home-
Non -Homestead
stead:
Parcel
7,74 acres
Area:
337.362eqft
Market
$4GO08OD
Total:'
'
Tax
$200.040.72
Total:
(Payable: 0013)
Sale
Price:
Sale
Date:
Sale
Map Scale: 1"=40Oft,
Print Date: 10/8/2013 -��_�
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sources _and _ furnished "AS IS" with _
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completeness of the information shown.
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____
B A S S
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100 Portland Ave. South
Suite 100
Minneapolis, MIN 55401
612 371-6440 T
612 332-0710 F
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MEMORANDUM
DATE: October 6, 2413
TO: Planning Commission (October 14, 20'13 meeting)
FROM: John Sutter, City Planner/Assistant Community Development Director
SUBJECT: Discuss Metropolitan Council's preliminary 2040 forecasts and possible
city response
State statute requires metropolitan cities to update their comprehensive plans every ten years.
The next update is due in 2018 and we expect to begin working on it in 2017.
Metropolitan Council ("MC") reviews local comprehensive plans for consistency with regional
systems. As part of this review MC examines the land use chapter and related chapters to
determine whether the local plan is consistent with population, household and employment
forecasts.
MC recently issued its preliminary 2040 regional and local forecasts. The forecasts were made
using computer models for the economy, employment and population ("REMI-PI"), household
type ("Profamy") and real estate ("Cube Land").
To better understand these models, and also to pose questions to MC staff, I will be attending
a workshop at the Ridgedale Library on October 30.
The following Exhibits are attached:
A. MC cover letter and workshop invitation
B. MC "Metro Stats" bulletin — regional overview of the 2040 forecasts
C. MC preliminary 2040 forecasts by county and city (Crystal highlighted)
D. Crystal charts showing MC's 2040 forecast
E. MC informational presentation about the 2040 forecasts
F. MC forecast methodology
Staff comments:
A. First, I aggregated the data for Crystal and other developed suburbs:
Crystal:
— Population up 6,149 or 27.8%
Households up 3,217 or 35.0%
Employment up 2,171 or 55.3%
METROPOLITAN COUNCIL'S PRELIMINARY 2040 FORECASTS
PAGE 1 OF 3
LI -1
C
Henn Co developed suburbs:
— Population up 99,346 or 38.0%
— Households up 45,539 or 40.4%
— Employment up 41,650 or 22.7%
Twin Cities metro area developed suburbs:
— Population up 153,456 or 33.7%
— Households up 75,598 or 39.1 %
-- Employment up 72,842 or 24.3%
Second, I identified which developed suburbs had the highest and lowest forecast
percent change from 2010-2040:
Population:
Henn Co - highest: Hopkins +55.8%
Henn Co - lowest: Brooklyn Center + 13.3%
TC metro - highest: Hopkins +55.8%
TC metro - lowest: Spring Lake Park + 4.8%
Households:
Henn Co - highest: Hopkins +47.0%
Henn Co - lowest: St Anthony +32.5%
TC metro - highest: North St Paul +47.3%
TC metro - lowest: Falcon Heights + 11.7%
Employment:
Henn Co - highest: Crystal +55.3%
Henn Co - lowest: Robbinsdale +10.8%
TC metro - highest: Crystal +55.3%
TC metro - lowest: Falcon Heights -13.2%
Preliminary thoughts:
1. The population and household forecasts for Crystal are not unique; they are
broadly consistent with MC's forecasts for other similar developed suburbs. But
the degree of increase among developed suburbs seems very unrealistic.
2. The employment forecast for Crystal stands out from other developed suburbs.
The next highest city is Columbia Heights at 41 %, and the average among all of
the developed suburbs is only 24%. What makes Crystal an outlier?
METROPOLITAN COUNCIL'S PRELIMINARY 2040 FORECASTS
PAGE 2 OF 3
3. Households are the major driver of residential development. MC's forecast for
households in Crystal is an increase of 3,217 from 2010-2040 — meaning an
average of 107 additional housing units every year from 2010-2440. This would
be about five times the recent historical average. For example, during the eight
year period ending Dec. 31, 2007 (when development activity was relatively
strong), Crystal had a net gain of 179 housing units, averaging 22 per year. That
net gain of 179 units was comprised of 29 single family homes, 80 townhomes, 4
units in duplexes and 66 units in apartments.
4. Even if the MC forecast is correct about demand, the land supply part of the
computer model seems unrealistic. How/where would so many redevelopment
sites materialize in Crystal and other developed suburbs? Crystal's employment
is forecast to increase by 55% so the model shouldn't assume replacing
commercial/industrial property with housing. The methodology brochure does not
really explain how the land supply submodel works. Based on what little is said
about it, and the resulting forecasts, it seems as if the model simply assumes
that demand will cause redevelopment sites to materialize, even in fully
developed areas, without regard to financial considerations, political/community
opposition and (most importantly) the willingness of current owners to sell.
Planning Commission discussion is requested regarding the 2040 forecasts.
Next steps:
• Staff will attend Metropolitan Council's October 30 workshop to present our questions and
concerns to MC staff and (hopefully, perhaps) change some minds.
• At its November 5 work session the City Council will discuss whether to make written
comments to MC regarding the 2040 forecasts.
• MC may agree to revise the forecasts later this year depending on the workshop
discussion and City Council comments.
• Forecasts will be continually revised and recalibrated by MC throughout 2014 and 2015.
• After MC's Regional System Statements are released in fall 2015, cities can formally
appeal the forecasts prior to beginning work on the 2018 Comprehensive Plan Update.
METROPOLITAN COUNCIL'S PRELIMINARY 2040 FORECASTS
PAGE 3 OF 3
Re: Preliminary Metropolitan Council Forecasts for Thrive MSP 2040 r'l _"�,
Dear Ms. Norris:
In preparation for next spring's adoption of Thrive MSP 2040 and the beginning of decennial Comprehensive
Plan updates, the Metropolitan Council has developed preliminary local forecasts of population,
households and employment to 2040. Preliminary forecasts for all communities in the region are enclosed
with this letter and are also available on the Council's website at www.metrocouncil.org.
Before the Council adopts these forecasts alongside the adoption of Thrive MSP 2040, the Council wants to
provide the opportunity for local comment. We are particularly interested in learning about factors that
influence where growth may occur in your community — especially future planned land use.
The Council will gold workshops across the region for local government elected officials and staff to learn
more about and provide feedback on policies proposed for Thrive MSP 2040 and local forecasts. Space is
limited; please RSVP to Council Public Information at public,infv metc.state.mn.us or 651-502-1140. Space
will be allocated on a first-come, first-served basis. We invite you to attend the workshop that is most
convenient for your schedule:
Brookdale Library —Meeting Room
5125 Shingle Creek Parkway, Brooklyn Center
Oct. 24, 5:30 to 7:30 p.m.
Maplewood Library-- Meeting Room
3025 Southlawn Drive
Oct. 25,10:30 a.m. to 12:30 p.m.
Dakota County Northern Service Center
Community Rooms
1 Mendota Road West, West St. Paul
Nov. 4, 1 to 3 p.m.
Scott County Association for Leadership and
Efficiency (SCALE)
Blaine City Hall —Community Room w+�l } 4546 Dakota 5t. 51=, Prior Lake
10801 Town Square Drive *"\.\ Nov. 8, 9 a.m. to 11 a.m.
Oct. 29, 7:30 to 9:30 a.m. '� An additional event is being planned with the
^l5�' Carver County City/County Planners group. More
=Ridgedale
eeting Room
, Minnetonka information will be available at
on www. ThriveMSP.org as the event is finalized
If you have questions or concerns about your local forecasts, please contact your Sector Representative,
Michael Larson, at michael.larson@metc.state.mn.us or 651-602-1407. The Council will accept comment on
the preliminary forecasts through December 1, 2093.
The Council will revise and finalize these forecasts in early 2014 for adoption with Thrive MSP 2040. As a
result of these revisions, some forecasts could increase, and some forecasts could decrease from the
preliminary numbers enclosed.
Sincerely,
1
Susan Haigh, Chair
cc: Council Member ,lames Brimeyer, District 6
Q
m
Z
What Lies Ahead: Population, Household and Employment Forecasts to 2040 April 2012
The Metropolitan Council
forecasts population, households
and employment for the seven -
county Minneapolis -St. Paul
region with a 30 -year time
horizon.
The Council will allocate this
regional forecast to local
communities through additional
modeling. The Council's local
land use model well represent the
expected spatial distribution of
population, households and
employment during 2010 to 2040,
given real estate and location
choice dynamics, and regional
policies and local land use
controls. The ultimate results of
this project—a final regional
forecast, together with local
forecasts—will be incorporated
into the next metropolitan
development guide scheduled for
Council adoption in early 2014.
Consistent with Minnesota
Statutes 473.146 and 473.859,
the regional and local forecasts
are intended as a statement of
future expectations and will
reflect regional planning and
policies.
For more information about the
methodology behind these
regional forecasts, see p. 5.
For more information, contact:
Todd Graham
Principal Forecaster
todd.grahamCcbimetc. state. mn.us
651-602-1322
Publication No. 74-12-016
Metropolitan Council Forecasts to 2040
Metropolitan Council's preliminary forecast anticipates
increasing demographic diversity and continued growth
for the seven -county Minneapolis -St Paul region by
2040. The region's population is projected to grow by
893,000. By 2040, 43 percent of residents will be
persons of color.
1 2090 2020 2030 2040
Population 2,850,004 3,144,000 3,447,000 3,743,000
Households 1,118,000 1,293,040 1,464,000 1,576,000
Employment 1,548,000 1,743,000 1,943,000 2,118,000
The seven -county Minneapolis -St. Paul region is projected to gain
893,000 people over the next three decades, reaching 3,743,000
residents in 2040, up from 2,850,000 in 2010. Projected growth rates,
9 to 10 percent per decade, are well below the historic growth rates of
15 percent per decade in the 1980s and the 1990s.
Natural population growth, or births outpacing deaths, will add 609,004
residents. Natural population growth will account for over two-thirds,
or 68 percent, of the total population growth from 2010 to 2040. Birth
rates are higher among families of color than white families,
contributing to the increasing racial diversity of the region.
One-third of the population increase in the Minneapolis -St. Paul region
will result from migration. The Minneapolis -St Paul area is likely to
gain 463,000 new residents through international immigration while
losing 179,000 residents to domestic out -migration.
The Minneapolis -St. Paul region will continue to be an immigration
gateway throughout the 30 -year period, and immigration will
substantially advance the region's diversity. Of the expected
international immigrants, 83 percent will be people of color, from all
continents; the remaining17 percent will be white, non -Hispanic.
METROPOLITAN COUNCIL I RESEARCH 0 390 ROBERT STREET NORTH, ST. PAUL. MN 55101-1805 1 WWW.METROCOUNCII_.ORG
m
6
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What Lies Ahead: Population, Household and Employment Forecasts to 2040 April 2012
Components of Population Growth, 2000-2040
■ Natural Growth
Net domestic migration—between
the Twin Cities region and the rest
of the nation—will be negative,
totaling a loss of 179,040 residents
during 2010-40. This is not a new
trend; US Census data shows out -
migrants leaving the region have
outnumbered new domestic arrivals
■ International Migrants E: 4 4 4 "' during the past decade.
too
a Domestic Migrants :Mi „ Geographic position and perceived
attractiveness of the Minneapolis -St.
Paul area are challenges to
domestic migration. While the
2001-2010 2011-2020 2021-2030 2031-2040 region's employment and business
opportunities draw international
immigrants, the Twin Cities are less attractive to movers who have other priorities. This trend is projected
to continue into the future unless there is a major change that dramatically alters domestic perceptions of
attractiveness and amenity value.
Migration and natural population growth together will replenish the Minneapolis -St Paul region's school
enrollments and workforce. The Council forecasts 254,000 additional residents under the age of 25 in the
Minneapolis -St Paul region, up from 965,000 in 2010 to 1,219,000 in 2040, for a 26 percent increase.
These dynamics will balance out the rapid expansion of the region's senior citizen (65 and over)
population.
The senior population in the Twin Cities
area will double between 2010 and
2030 and will continue growing
throughout the projections period, from
307,000 seniors in 2010 to 770,000
seniors in 2040. Between the aging of
Baby Boomers and longer life
expectancies, senior citizens will
become a substantial cohort of the
population in the Minneapolis -St. Paul
area. In 2010, senior citizens were 11
percent of the region's population; in
2040, seniors will be 21 percent of the
population.
■ Ages 65+
* Ages 25-64
■Ages 15-24
KAges 0-14
Population by Age, 2010-2040
2010 2020 2030 2040
As the age profile of the population shifts, the mix of households in the Minneapolis -St. Paul area is also
changing, The Council forecasts 1,576,000 households in 2040, an increase of 41 percent from 2010.
Senior citizens are the most significant contributors to household growth as seniors tend to live alone or
with a spouse. Most of the forecasted gain in households (58 percent) is reflected in net growth of one-
person households (up 179,000 over 30 years) and of married couples without children (up 87,000).
2
METRO)PO ITAN C;QUNC;I! ■ PEn5EARCH 0 390 ROBERT STREET NORTH. ST. PAUL. MN 5 s 101 - M5 0 wvvw rulFTRDCUUNC1L.URU
What Lies Ahead: Population, Household and Employment Forecasts to 2040 April 2012
These gains reflect the end stages of the household life -cycle, as couples with children become
households without children.
Growth in Generation Y and Millennials will still generate growth in households with children (up 148,000
or 33 percent over 30 years). However, most of the net household growth in the Twin Cities area will
result from growth in one -parent households (up 80,000 or 62 percent over 30 years),
• Single parent with children
■ Couple with children
■ Cohabiting couple, no children
■ Married couple, no children
■ One person and other
■ Living alone
Household Type, 2010-2040
2010 2020 2030 2040
Between the churn of migration and higher birth rates among Hispanic, Black or African-American, and
Asian populations, the Minneapolis -St. Paul region will become more racially and ethnically diverse. In
2010, people of color comprised 24 percent of the regional population. By 2040, the Council projects that
43 percent of residents will be people of color. In 2040, the Minneapolis -St Paul workforce will reflect the
diversity seen today in the region's elementary schools. The population of color will more than double, up
from 676,000 in 2010 to 1,613,000 in 2040, while the White non -Hispanic population will decrease by 2
percent, The region's
Hispanic population is Population by Race and Ethnicity, 2010-2040
expected to nearly triple
(from 168,000 in 2010 to
479,000 in 2040), and both
the Black or African-
American population and Ir Hispanic
the population of Asians +Asian and Other
and other people of color
will more than double (from ■ Black or African -America
234,000 in 2010 to 492,000 v White non -Hispanic
in 2040 and from 274,004 in
2010 to 642,000 in 2040),
The Council's population
forecasts reveal contrasting
trends in the age distribution
3
2010 2020 2030 2040
METROPOLITAN COUNCIL 0 RESEARCH ■ 390 FiOB RI STREET NORTH. $1 PAUL. MN 55101.1805 1 YhVW-PvtF_ R04:OQN(;IL,0RCa
What Lies Ahead: Population, Household and Employment Forecasts to 2040 April 2012
of people of color and white residents. These trends will affect the composition of the region's working -age
residents, with significant implications for the future workforce of the region. The number of white
residents, ages 25-64, will shrink by 21 percent (from 1,262,000 in 2010 to 992,000 in 2040), while the
population of color in the same age cohort will more than double, climbing from 317,000 in 2010 to
762,000 in 2040. The share of people of color will increase from 20 percent of working -age residents in
2010 to 43 percent in 2040.
■ Ages 65+
w Ages 25-64
■ Ages 15-24
■ Ages 0-14
Population by Race 1 Ethnicity and Age
2010 2020 2030 2040 2010 2020 2030 2040
White White White White People of People of People of People of
Calor Calor Color Color
The Council's population forecasts anticipate an increasingly diverse student body in the region. The
population of color under age 25 will double in size, up from 335,000 in 2010 to 676,000 in 2040. In
contrast, the number of white residents under age 25 would decrease from 630,000 in 2010 to 543,000 in
2040, pulling down the share of white school-age children and young adults in this age of group from 65
percent in 2010 to 45 percent in 2040.
Migration dynamics are the major factor in this demographic transition. People moving from the
Minneapolis -5t Paul area to other parts of the nation (domestic out -migration) are mostly white and older
(retirees). In contrast, the region's gain of international immigrants is predominantly people of color,
mostly people in their 20s, often immigrating with children.
The Council forecasts an employment gain of 570,000 jobs, up from 1,548,000 in 2010 to 2,118,000 in
2040. The Council anticipates employment growth will range from 13 percent in the current decade to 9
percent in the 2030s. This growth compares to a net employment loss over the 2000s and previous gains
of 34 percent in the 1970s, 22 percent in the 1980s, and 26 percent in the 1990s.
4
METROPOLITAN COUNGI! 8 RE3RARCH 8 390 ROBERT STREET NOR -1H. 31. PAUL. MN 55101-1$pr) 0 WiV Pv1ETROUQUNCfIL.ORC3
What Lies Ahead: Population, Household and Employment Forecasts to 2040 April 2012
The region's Gross
Metro Product, the
sum of value added
by all industry
sectors, will rise to
$400 billion in
2040—equivalent to
1.5 percent of the US
Gross Domestic
Product. For context,
the Minneapolis -St
Paul region has less
than 1.0 percent of
the nation's population.
Historic and Forecasted Employment
1,943, 000
2,118,000
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Employment opportunities in the Minneapolis -St Paul region attract not only new migrants, but also
commuting workers living in Greater Minnesota or Wisconsin. In 2010, the Council estimates that 7.7
percent of earnings at Minneapolis -St. Paul workplaces are earned by commuters into the region. (This is
offset by 1.5 percent of the region's household earnings coming from work outside the Twin Cities region.)
This balance of workers commuting in, and earnings returning with those workers to their place of
residence, is projected to remain unchanged over the projections period as the Minneapolis -St Paul
region remains the predominant economic center for a large part of Minnesota and western Wisconsin.
About the Council's Forecasts
To prepare its long-range forecast, the Metropolitan Council has adopted REMI PI+, a regional
macroeconomic model, and ProFamy, a demographic model. Both models have been customized to
include additional regional data and represent Minneapolis -St Paul regional conditions.
The REMI PI+ model represents regional economic dynamics and projects time -series of economic and
demographic outcomes. The REMI PI+ projections are informed by data on the region's industry mix,
costs and productivity, and analysis of regional competitiveness and relative position within the national
economy. Employment, migration and population outcomes directly flow from projected economic
performance.
The Metropolitan Council is using ProFamy, an extended cohort -component simulation model, to group
populations into household types. These projections are informed by age -by -race -specific demographic
schedules of birth rates, household formation and dissolution rates, fertility, and mortality rates. The end -
product is a time -series of projections of household counts by household type.
METROPOLITAN COUNCIL I RESEARCH ■ 390 RORER 1' 51 -DEET NORTH. ST- PAUL, Iv1N 55101-1805 6 VVVVVw`-METR000JN(;IL.URC3
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METROPOLITAN COUNCIL'S
PRELIMINARY FORECASTS
METHODOLOGY
SEPTEMBER 18, 2013
N
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Metropolitan Council's
Preliminary Forecasts Methodology
Long-range forecasts at Metropolitan Council are updated at least once per decade. Population,
households and employment levels are projected with a 30 -year time horizon. The regional and local
forecasts express future expectations based on an understanding of regional dynamics, and
representing expected outcomes of policies and planning. Consistent with Minnesota Statutes 473.146
and 473.859, these forecasts provide a shared foundation for coordinated, comprehensive planning by
the Council and local governments.
A preliminary regional forecast was presented at Metropolitan Council's Committee of the Whole on
April 18, 2012. Preliminary local forecasts were issued on September 11, 2013. The ultimate results of
this project — a final regional forecast, together with local forecasts — will be included in the Thrive MSP
2040 plan for Council approval in April 2014.
Overview of forecasting project,
Metropolitan Council's long-term forecasting is premised on understanding the Twin Cities' situation
within the larger, national economy: The region's business conditions and competitive advantages
determine regional economic and employment levels, which in turn prompt population growth through
migration.
Subsequent to the regional forecast, local forecasts address geographic distributions within the region.
Regional population, households and employment will site in specific places. Metropolitan Council
assumes that real estate demand and supply dynamics, interacting with future transportation
accessibility, primarily determine outcomes, influenced by regional land use policies and local plans.
Considering the multi -scale nature of future planning needs, Metropolitan Council employs multiple
forecast modeling tools:
A regional economic model for forecasting region -level economic activity and migration flows in
response to economic opportunity.
A demographic model packaging population forecasts into various household types
A land use model simulating and projecting real estate market dynamics, in order to locate
future land use, households and employment to communities and zones.
Methodology of RFMI P.
In 2011, following a review of best practices in regional economic modeling, the Council selected REMI
PI as the model best fitting the Council's understanding of regional growth. REMI PI is a structural
macroeconomic simulation model. It makes use of computable general equilibrium (CGE) techniques
for simultaneous solution of macroeconomic accounts, as well as input-output matrices to represent
inter -industry flows and impacts. Also, the model employs new economic geography techniques to
represent regional differentials and aggregated interactions among regions, mainly trade and migration
flows.
Page 12
Simulation and projection of economic activities (production, consumption, and trade) are central to the
model; Cobb -Douglass functions determine the balance of capital, and labor levels; and the model
seeks equilibrium between industries' labor demand, wage levels, and labor supply. If industries' labor
demand intensifies (or slackens), then wages and labor supply adjust up (or down) via economic
migration. Thus, economic competitiveness and labor demand are the major determinants of migration
in the REMI PI model.
A more detailed description can be found in the model documentation:
Regional Economic Models Inc. (2013), REMI Pl+ Model Equations, online at
www.remi.com/downloadldocumentafionl i+1 i+ version 9.5/PI+ 0.5 Moder E uafions. df
Our Minnesota implementation of the model has two home regions: the Twin Cities metro is one; the
remaining 80 counties are a second region; the rest of the nation and the world are additional linked
economies. Model updates delivered by Regional Economic Models Inc. in 2011, 2012 and 2013
assess the Twin Cities metro having factor cost advantages, resource advantages, and good workforce
availability across a complete range of occupations. These characteristics inform a forecast of above-
average growth in coming decades.
Methodology of Profamy model.
Metropolitan Council has also implemented Profamy, a separate demographic model for projecting
household counts by demographic cohort, using extended cohort -component techniques to represent
household change dynamics.
The model groups all population members by age, race and gender, and projects forward distributions
of life cycle states based on demographic schedule probabilities. These schedules cover fertility rates,
survival rates, leave home rates, inter -regional migration, household formation, and
cohabit/ma rriagelseparation rates. Summarization of probabilities provides a comprehensive time -
series of population and households characteristics.
A more detailed description is available from the model developers. See:
Yi Zeng, et al. (2010), Household and population projections at sub -national levels: An extended
cohort -component approach, online at htt :/I aa2010. rinceton.edul a ers/10995$
In 2012, Metropolitan Council staff worked with HCF Consulting to update the model with region -
specific 2010 base year data, region -specific fertility rates, and migration rates by age, race and
gender. The migration rates table is a compilation of migration results from the REMI Pi model.
Profamy was tested by Council staff and its projections compared with the REMI PI forecast. Given the
same demographic schedules, and the exogenously-provided migration rates, Profamy can produce a
30 -year -horizon population projection that is within 1 percent of the REMI PI forecast.
Metropolitan Council staff are using REMI PI for economic, employment and population forecasts.
Profamy is used as a follow-on process, to parse the REMI PI population projections into households
by household type. HCF Consulting has provided programming that allows the model user to enforce
consistency with the time -series of population projections received from the REMI PI modeling.
Modifications to the as -delivered REMI Pl model.
In the implementation of REMI PI, Council staff modify some settings and data inputs to the model.
First, the national forecast in the Council's model is controlled to match nation -level GDP projections
and industry employment projections drawn from Global Insight's 30 -year Trend forecast; this is the
same forecast used by the Minnesota State Economist as a baseline for long-term, national economic
Page 13
expectations. The national forecast is significant insofar as the Twin Cities metro and Minnesota are
part of nation, and the region's economic growth is tethered to national economic conditions. For more
information, see:
Minnesota Management & Budget (2012, and updated bi-annually), Economic & Minnesota Outlook,
online at www.mmb.state.mn.us/feb-2013-for'ecasf
Second, Council staff update regional time -series tables with known numbers and facts on the ground:
• 2011-2012 regional population by race and age are updated with estimates by US Census
Bureau;
• 2011-2012 regional industry employment are updated with counts from Minnesota Department
of Employment and Economic Development statistics.
A number of future expectations are adjusted to better reflect regional trends. There are variables in the
model that are recognized as difficult to project. Generally, Council staff assumes a stable status quo or
median values within the range of possibilities:
• REMI's fertility rates schedules (fertility rates by race and by age of mother) are replaced with
region -specific projections prepared by Council staff. In the Twin Cities metro, Council staff
project the region's total fertility rate for whites increases to 1.78 per woman; the rate for blacks
declines to 2.89; rates for Hispanic, Asian, and other race groups remain stable at 2.38.
■ REMI's survival rates schedules are adjusted to better match the Minnesota State
Demographer's. The State Demographer projects, conservatively, that life expectancies
advance by 2 years over the 30 -year projections horizon.
• College -going population by race is projected to increase in tandem with growth in the resident
population of 17-year-olds by race.
• Average property tax rates for the Twin Cities metro are updated to reflect tax increases during
2011-2013, and are projected to level off thereafter.
• Consumer prices for energy are adjusted to maintain a constant ratio of regional prices relative
to national average prices. Utility rates are held at 95 percent of the national average; fuel prices
are held at 100 percent of the national average; there is not clear reason to project that Twin
Cities metro relative prices would decline below these relative levels.
The forecast models described above provide details on future demographics and industry composition
at a macro -level, without geographic detail. Additional modeling, at a local scale, is necessary to project
the geographic distribution of households and industries over time.
Methodology of Cube Land.
In 2009, Council staff conducted an internal needs assessment and a state -of -the -practice review of
land use models. Council staff recommended adoption of a market simulation model capable of
producing zonal projections of households, population and employment, as well as accounting future
land use. In 2010, the Council licensed and implemented Citilabs Cube Land as a platform for local real
estate market modeling and scenarios analysis. Cube Land was chosen in part for its potential to
integrate with the Council's travel demand model, allowing land use patterns and transportation network
conditions to iteratively adjust over time.
The logic of Cube Land is the market sorting and equilibriation of real estate demand and supply (real
estate types and locations), assuming best -use and value -maximizing decisions of households, site
selectors and developers. Cube Land includes three submodels:
• The demand submodel simulates an auction in which different market segments are willing to
pay (or bid) differential amounts for combinations of real estate and place characteristics.
Page 14
• The rent submodel uses estimated bids, along with other local characteristics, to estimate rents
for different real estate types at specific locations.
• The supply submodel projects forward real estate development by comparing rents with supply
costs', and locating new development based on estimated profit margins (rent minus supply
costs) and land simply availability.
In summary, households and works ites choose real estate types, situated in specific locations, so as to
maximize value. Developers respond by supplying real estate responsive to the demand.
The demand model mathematically represents the preference structures of different household market
segments and industry sectors using variables, and parameters for variables, identified and estimated
through discrete choice analysis of existing behavior (which is known through survey data). Variables
include neighborhood characteristics and accessibility to destinations. These quantified preferences
allow the model to estimate probabilities of all potential real estate choices for each defined household
type and worksite type. The choice is comprised of realestate types and locations. The locations
correspond to the post -2000 Transportation Analysis Zone JAZ) system used in the Council's travel
demand model.
Many of the variables that determine the choice probabilities can change over time: Summarized land
use and remaining available land supply, industry mix, and socioeconomic mix of zones are projected
and updated within the model. Accessibility measures are projected and updated through iterative
looping with a linked travel demand model.
Concurrently, the rent model uses estimated bids, as well as other zonal characteristics, to calculate
and update rents within the model. If real estate in a certain location is highly desirable to one or more
market segments, rents can change, altering estimated distributions (or probabilities) of household and
worksite location choices, and prompting choice substitution. Ultimately, the model seeks an equilibrium
solution where all forecasted future households and employment are sorted into real estate choices,
proportionate to updated choice probabilities.
The discussion above concerns different market sectors valuing locations, and sorting themselves to
accomplish best -value results. Importantly, Cube Land allows supply response to growing and
changing market demand. Regional totals of target -year households and employment can differ from
start -year totals. To accommodate growth in households and employment — which has been forecasted
using the region -level forecast models —the Cube Land supply submodel projects the addition of new
housing and employment -bearing built space. In the Twin Cities implementation of Cube Land, the
major determinants of such development are land supply and estimated rents for each zonal location.
As rents are dynamically estimated within the model, the geographic distribution of new development is
likewise dynamic — with new growth precipitated by lower development costs and/or higher rents for
valued location characteristics.
Data and Variables Used in the Council's Cube Land Modeling
The Twin Cities implementation of Cube Land segments worksites and employment into 8 industry
sectors; these groups have varying preferences and use varying amounts of 5 types of employment -
bearing real estate. Households are segmented by socioeconomic characteristics into 5 major
household types (and 80 subtypes), which then select housing from 8 housing types. This
segmentation enables moderate representation of how real estate and location preferences vary
among different household and industry types.
Page 15
The Cube Land system allows flexibility in defining the set of variables that comprise preferences and
valuations of real estate. The variables identified as most significant, and included in the Council's
modeling, are compiled for 1,201 Transportation Analysis Zones. These zonal characteristics also
inform the calibration of the model to year 2010 conditions. Zonal characteristics include:
• Real Estate Characteristics:
a Start -year land use mix and undeveloped land supply
o Existing housing stock and employment -bearing built space
❑ Average land consumption per real estate unit
o Average building costs
• Surrounding Land Uses:
❑ Proximity to lakes and rivers
o Zonal demographics
❑ Zonal employment
❑ Housing density
Regional Systems and Services:
o Proximity to parks
❑ Wastewater service availability
o High frequency bus stops
o LRT stations
• Transportation Accessibility, obtained through interaction with the Council's travel demand
model:
❑ Number of jobs within 20 -minute travel time (by automobile and by transit)
a Number of households within 20 -minute travel time (by automobile and by transit)
The Cube Land model also uses local planned land use and regional policies when forecasting future
real estate supply, including:
• Planned Land Use acreage (from local comprehensive plans)
• Allowable real estate types
• Existing housing densities
■ Maximum allowable housing densities (from local comprehensive plans)
• Maximum allowable housing units (from local comprehensive plans)
In summary, the Cube Land model is richly informed about base year conditions and the envelope of
future possibilities.
Model maintenance and forecast updates.
Metropolitan Council receives annual updates of the REMI PI software and time -series data inputs. The
model received in July 2013 includes time -series data for years 1990-2411, as well as national
demographic adjustments to reflect US Census Bureau's immigration assumptions. For more
information, see:
US Census Bureau (2012), 2092 National Population Projections, online at
www. census. go vlo oar ula tionlArole ctionslda talna tion aI120 9 2. h tm1
Council staff will prepare final regional and local forecasts in early 2014, for approval by Metropolitan
Council and inclusion in the Thrive MSP 2040 plan. These final forecasts will reflect updated data and
assumptions, and updated representation of regional policies.
Page 16
In the preliminary forecast modeling, geographic representation of regional systems and policies has
been limited to a base -case scenario, including: the 2030 Metropolitan Urban Services Area, defining
the coverage of wastewater service; the 2040 regional transportation network, incorporating the
planned, long-term program of transitways and highway improvements to 2040; and local
comprehensive plans prepared by communities during 2005-2011, with planned land use to 2030.
Revisions of these systems and policies are possible and can be represented in updated local forecasts
for the Thrive MSP 2044 plan, or in subsequent updates coordinated with regional system plans. The
preliminary modeling does not presently account for -- but could be modified to represent — new policy
factors. Hypothetically, these could include real estate development responding to subsidies for
affordable housing development, added development costs in subreg1onaI areas with water supply
limitations, or maximum capacity restrictions in such areas.
Page 17
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